Which teams were this year's biggest surprises?

Cleaning my desk yesterday, I came across a piece of paper where I had written the over/under for wins for every NFL team, as mentioned on The Dan Patrick Show in the preseason. Here's how they match up after 16 weeks of football.

Team	o/u for wins	actual wins	difference
Dallas Cowboys	9	13	4
Philadelphia Eagles	9	7	-2
New York Giants	8	10	2
Washington Redskins	7.5	8	0.5
Chicago Bears	10	6	-4
Green Bay Packers	7.5	12	4.5
Minnesota Vikings	6.5	8	1.5
Detroit Lions	6	7	1
Carolina Panthers	9	6	-3
New Orleans Saints	9	7	-2
Atlanta Falcons	7.5	3	-4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	9	2
Seattle Seahawks	9	10	1
San Francisco 49ers	7.5	5	-2.5
St. Louis Rams	7.5	3	-4.5
Arizona Cardinals	7	7	0
New England Patriots	11.5	15	3.5
New York Jets	8	3	-5
Miami Dolphins	7	1	-6
Buffalo Bills	6	7	1
Baltimore Ravens	9	4	-5
Cincinnati Bengals	9	6	-3
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	10	1
Cleveland Browns	5.5	9	3.5
Indianapolis Colts	10.5	13	2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	9	11	2
Tennessee Titans	7	9	2
Houston Texans	6.5	7	0.5
San Diego Chargers	10.5	10	-0.5
Denver Broncos	9.5	6	-3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	7.5	4	-3.5
Oakland Raiders	5	4	-1

Granted, the season isn't over yet, but the Packers and Dolphins have clinched at least a tie for the most pleasantly surprising and disappointing teams, respectively.

New England/Indy is Sunday's worst game

I was looking at the lines for Sunday's games when I came to the realization that New England vs. Indianapolis had the second biggest line at +6, after San Diego/Minnesota's +8 (both games feature big home underdogs). Pats/Colts feature the game's two best quarterbacks, Bolts/Vikes feature the game's two best running backs. Which one of those games will be the most lopsided is yet to be decided, but how about some love for the best 1 o'clock slate of games in NFL history?

There are six games slated for Sunday between teams separated by three spots or less on my power rankings; four of those games have 1 o'clock kickoffs. I agonized over my picks for Broncos/Lions and Packers/Chiefs. Even the games at the bottom of the standings should come down to the fourth quarter - there's no way 49ers/Falcons won't be up for grabs with two minutes left. Bill/Bengals has a 1 point spread. All I'm saying is don't sleep on the early games Sunday.