Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Tough talk from a small man

Yesterday morning David Stern detailed the NBA security network set up to prevent game fixing and other armageddon scenarios. But these guys aren't exactly Elliot Ness because some of the numbers that have come out are staggering. Last season, games Donaghy reffed went an average of 13.5 points per game above the over/under. People don't realize how good Vegas is at setting lines: it's the foundation of the argument to not gamble. They're so good that the lines usually don't change unless there's new information such as a major injury, so the late money mostly goes for one side.

Now here's the thing that should have set off alarms to any moron whose job is to look for signs of point shaving: the point spread moved a point and a half or more the first ten games Donaghy reffed in 2007, and in each of those games the team where late money went covered. So what exactly was this security team looking for? This isn't a rhetorical question; I really can't think of another method to prevent point shaving besides examining point spreads and the over/under.

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