Wednesday, October 10, 2007

I can't believe ARod is going to opt out

It sure sounds to me like Alex Rodriguez is going to leave 3 years and $91 million on the table and opt out of his contract, at least according to the comments by Scott Boras. Brian Cashman has consistently said the Yankees won't enter the bidding for ARod if he opts out of his deal, which is largely subsidized by the Texas Rangers. It's also unlikely that the Red Sox pursue him, especially if they make a World Series run. Third baseman Mike Lowell is a free agent and their regular season MVP, and will cost probably $12-16 million a year compared to $28-35 million a year. Shortstop Julio Lugo is signed for the next 3 years. There's no way the Mets make a run at him, with David Wright and Jose Reyes firmly established on the left side of their infield.

So that leaves the Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers as the most likely suiters for Rodriguez. Does Boras really expect one of those team to pay $30 million a year, well over 25% of any of those teams' payrolls, for a guy whose ex-teams have improved the year after he leaves? There's a reason almost all the elite free agent contracts over the years end up on the Yankees (Giambi, Clemens, Mussina), or occasionally the Red Sox (Manny) or Mets (Beltran). These are the only teams that can afford to put a team around an ARod type player.

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